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Treatment effects Time | Actual Outcome Synthetic Outcome Treatment Effect 1989 | 82.4000 89.9945 -7.5945 1990 | 77.8000 87.5039 -9.7039 1993 | 63.4000 81.1897 -17.7897 1997 | 53.8000 77.7123 -23.9123 1999 | 47.2000 73.5711 -26.3711 2000 | 41.6000 67.3550 -25.7550 Mean | 60.3500 79.3518 -19.0018 The treatment effect grows progressively from -7.6 packs in 1989 to -26.4 packs by 1999, with the average over all 12 post-treatment years equaling -19.0 packs per capita